Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-06 10.605253 12.157992 13.832121 15.767975 17.941325 20.302449 23.058144
2025-07-13 8.471805 10.605216 13.084679 16.165442 19.875758 24.184507 29.550235
2025-07-20 7.368579 9.759798 12.674775 16.463684 21.229278 26.993056 34.456548
2025-07-27 6.365866 8.879004 12.078591 16.409707 22.072050 29.170360 38.681131
2025-08-03 5.544936 8.096993 11.473003 16.207921 22.608918 30.883919 42.298397
2025-08-10 4.948909 7.536576 11.081182 16.214344 23.364916 32.865212 46.310612
2025-08-17 4.502370 7.126660 10.838049 16.371420 24.290749 35.073323 50.686330
2025-08-24 4.067765 6.682564 10.495299 16.339202 24.919231 36.872988 54.555067
2025-08-31 3.665075 6.241252 10.109750 16.197933 25.355902 38.394629 58.071859
2025-09-07 3.374040 5.941556 9.903816 16.293605 26.121426 40.393625 62.327865
2025-09-14 3.203555 5.816421 9.949900 16.764256 27.456412 43.260806 67.946094
2025-09-21 2.914107 5.465163 9.607920 16.597357 27.795274 44.654252 71.431605
2025-09-28 2.522025 4.905959 8.892833 15.795157 27.112335 44.500100 72.630654
2025-10-05 2.393000 4.796032 8.912061 16.188212 28.342262 47.321345 78.480208
2025-10-12 2.260507 4.665318 8.881862 16.488623 29.425906 49.946819 84.115463
2025-10-19 2.082887 4.432829 8.654928 16.433943 29.912654 51.639391 88.342441
2025-10-26 1.900933 4.173350 8.357803 16.232111 30.131579 52.897809 91.911057
2025-11-02 1.765868 3.992057 8.187059 16.238466 30.697752 54.733999 96.470533
2025-11-09 1.662644 3.864483 8.104937 16.395777 31.527119 57.029730 101.858266
2025-11-16 1.544533 3.694188 7.927786 16.363506 32.014095 58.763256 106.368981
2025-11-23 1.424105 3.506616 7.701842 16.222054 32.291674 60.143214 110.325875
2025-11-30 1.340069 3.389564 7.605204 16.317851 32.999098 62.280196 115.631904
2025-12-07 1.300890 3.368767 7.700207 16.789124 34.418408 65.704438 123.260273